Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d6b…5e31
tech · 225 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$164 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$236 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$701
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses49 / 116
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions79
Markets (closed)165 / 225
History coverage56d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day59.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 79 History 165 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$204
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 83¢ $375 $477 +$102 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-51%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 68¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 64¢ 86¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Baidu have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 32¢ 16¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? No 83¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 79¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 76¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 84¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 81¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -92%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6 +$1 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $7 $0 +6%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +26%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$6 -56%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Beyoncé be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$5 -55%
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 06 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $2 $0 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$3 -71%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +25%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -87%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$3 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $4 −$4 -96%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $5 −$4 -97%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $3 −$3 -75%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $5 −$3 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$18
world 23% −$42
tech 12% −$149
crypto 11% −$31
politics 3% −$8
culture 3% −$36
finance 1% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 12m
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 88¢ $1 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 31% -21.4%
≤30d 98 -52.4% -56.9% 21% 16% -58.1%
≤90d 165 -35.7% -41.8% 30% 20% -40.1%
all 165 -35.7% -41.8% 30% 20% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.8% 20% -40.1%
10% ← realistic here -47.4% 13% -45.8%
15% -52.4% 5% -51.1%
20% -57.1% 5% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.70 · official $698.69 (match) · 3500 history records