Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4D 0x4d6a…c8c1 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,083 (+19%) realized +$1,083 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +222% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +148% what you keep after slip
Net edge+148%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+191.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +222.0% +191.3% 60% 50% +15.6%
≤30d 10 +222.0% +191.3% 60% 50% +15.6%
≤90d 10 +222.0% +191.3% 60% 50% +15.6%
all 10 +222.0% +191.3% 60% 50% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +191.3% 50% +15.6%
10% ← realistic here +163.4% 30% +4.5%
15% +138.0% 30% -5.6%
20% +114.7% 30% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +222% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$177 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,083
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$569
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,415 +$272 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $331 +$1,121 +338%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $537 +$113 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $750 +$15 +2%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $200 −$65 -33%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $170 +$396 +233%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $154 −$79 -51%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $493 −$488 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,540 +$110 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $100 −$74 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $100 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $597 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $36 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $122 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 60¢ $593 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $607 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 95¢ $1,169 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 69¢ $30 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 69¢ $3 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 69¢ $63 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 69¢ $92 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 69¢ $95 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $0 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $10 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $20 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $6 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $60 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $0 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $15 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 20¢ $67 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records