Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:56:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d6a…f6bf
crypto · 274 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$877 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$795 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157
Realized−$795
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses145 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)271 / 274
History coverage28d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day113.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 8 History 271 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$12
14 days−$258
30 days−$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $133 $120 −$13 (-10%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $APBC? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 75¢ 79¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$8 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$32 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 02 $78 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 24 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 24 $54 −$19 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $45 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 24 $39 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 24 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 24 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 24 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 24 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 24 $146 −$121 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $37 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 24 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 24 $341 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $328 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$798
other 3% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -6.7% -15.6% 48% 42% -10.9%
≤30d 271 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 42% -12.5%
≤90d 271 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 42% -12.5%
all 271 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 42% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover113.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 42% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 30% -20.8%
15% -25.3% 19% -28.5%
20% -32.7% 15% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.58 · official $156.56 (match) · 3500 history records