Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d68…d94e other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 422d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
other 40% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 4% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.8% -2.5% 67% 33% -1.5%
≤30d 13 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 13 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 8% -8.4%
all 48 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.39 per $1 lost it wins $5.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

422d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage422d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 +$8 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $137 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $133 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $24 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Daria Kasatkina win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 03 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 27 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30? May 27 $26 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 27 $0 $0 -12%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 07 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 06 $23 +$1 +5%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? Apr 28 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 58¢ $19 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 58¢ $26 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $36 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 35h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $21 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $26 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $11 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.85 · official $36.85 (match) · 174 history records