Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4D 0x4d67…ab42 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,210 (+7%) realized +$11,101 · open +$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%32W / 16L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$3,093per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1,020est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$16,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,015
7 days+$9,899
14 days+$9,899
30 days+$9,899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$14,416
other 27% −$4,577
tech 0% +$35
crypto 0% +$8
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.3% +5.2% 60% 60% -2.8%
≤30d 25 +16.3% +5.2% 60% 60% -2.8%
≤90d 27 +12.1% +1.4% 59% 59% -2.7%
all 48 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 54% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 54% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 40% -12.4%
15% -23.1% 31% -20.9%
20% -30.7% 12% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$3,076) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,369 vs −$2,127 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$16,112
Realized+$11,101
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses32 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,020
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage547d
Avg bet$3,093
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 68¢ 68¢ $9,030 $9,096 +$66 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 81¢ 81¢ $6,974 $7,016 +$42 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5,893 −$5,893 -100%
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 29 $239 −$238 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $664 +$1,935 +291%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $2,683 +$3,297 +123%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $1,218 −$1,218 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $16,339 +$7,457 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $1,521 −$1,521 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $1,654 +$711 +43%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 29 $669 −$669 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $1,467 −$1,467 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $16,657 +$3,173 +19%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2,838 +$8,242 +290%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $2,045 +$3,079 +151%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $3,732 +$2,478 +66%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $1,667 −$1,667 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2,058 −$2,058 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $4,450 +$550 +12%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $11,660 −$11,660 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,942 +$1,245 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5,687 +$2,145 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,076 +$1,074 +35%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $9,478 +$1,022 +11%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1,164 +$2,761 +237%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6,306 −$6,306 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $25,139 +$3,428 +14%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 13 $999 +$190 +19%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere Oct 27 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Spirit win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament? Aug 04 $236 +$92 +39%
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. MOUZ Aug 03 $64 +$25 +39%
IEM Cologne: Vitality vs. MOUZ Aug 03 $500 −$500 -100%
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. Natus Vincere Aug 02 $621 +$240 +39%
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. FURIA Aug 02 $434 +$186 +43%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Aug 01 $500 +$35 +7%
IEM Cologne: Natus Vincere vs. MOUZ Jul 28 $150 +$61 +41%
IEM Cologne: Aurora vs. Spirit Jul 28 $450 +$106 +24%
IEM Cologne: G2 vs. Vitality Jul 28 $351 +$52 +15%
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. HEROIC Jul 27 $219 +$40 +18%
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. Liquid Jul 27 $320 +$101 +32%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Apr 10 $116 −$116 -100%
Thunder vs. Nets Mar 10 $116 +$12 +10%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10? Feb 25 $116 +$7 +6%
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin before February? Feb 01 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 27 $116 +$1 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 20 $116 +$50 +43%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-29? Jan 03 $115 +$11 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $168 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $41 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $37 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $107 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $21 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $17 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $13 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $18 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $10 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $286 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $67 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $128 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $21 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $21 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $21 31m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $4 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $4 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $6 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $213 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $13 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $21 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $9 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $426 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $16 32m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $5 33m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $4 33m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $21 33m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $21 33m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $21 33m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $23 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,112.36 · official $16,113.22 (match) · 1177 history records