Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d66…54c3 world 38 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (157 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 28L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day156.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$11
politics 29% $0
other 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (157 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.4% -16.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 -10.4% -18.9% 3% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 29 -10.4% -18.9% 3% 0% -8.6%
all 29 -10.4% -18.9% 3% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 0% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 0% -17.4%
15% -33.8% 0% -25.4%
20% -40.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
46.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$0 · ×109.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 28
Open positions10
Markets (closed)29 / 38
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$229
Trades / day156.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 29 $0 $0 -145%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 25 $65 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $30 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 25 $25 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $50 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $378 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $274 +$13 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $65 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.57 · official $27.51 · 3500 history records