Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d65…20d0 other 39 markets active 3d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$463per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$7
politics 27% −$7
world 12% −$2
economics 7% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 39 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,043) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage78d
Avg bet$463
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Jun 12 $1,275 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $1,219 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,268 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,331 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? May 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series? May 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Desire Doue be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 12 $982 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $954 −$2 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 11 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r May 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $1,102 $0 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 10 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 10 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $22 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 28 $163 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 3d
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 5d
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? SELL SpaceX 100¢ $37 5d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? SELL No 98¢ $140 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 5d
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? BUY SpaceX 100¢ $37 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $308 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,157 5d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,217 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 SELL No 100¢ $71 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,199 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $969 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records