Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d63…0687 crypto 838 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$493 (-3%) realized −$579 · open +$86
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate85%700W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days+$50
14 days+$8
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$88
sports 29% −$336
other 5% −$7
weather 0% −$7
tech 0% +$27
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.6% -20.0% 43% 43% -4.9%
≤30d 178 -2.1% -11.5% 89% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 810 -9.5% -18.1% 85% 20% -12.2%
all 823 +14.0% +3.1% 85% 22% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 22% -12.1%
10% -6.8% 3% -20.5%
15% -15.8% 2% -28.2%
20% -24.0% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$975
Realized−$579
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses700 / 123
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions15
Markets (closed)823 / 838
History coverage266d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? No 87¢ 78¢ $351 $317 −$34 (-10%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 80¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+62%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 45¢ 76¢ $46 $77 +$31 (+68%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 72¢ $74 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 27¢ 69¢ $28 $71 +$43 (+157%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 70¢ 64¢ $71 $66 −$6 (-8%)
Brazil leading at halftime? No 30¢ 30¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? No 80¢ 84¢ $56 $60 +$3 (+6%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 26¢ 48¢ $27 $48 +$22 (+83%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 42¢ 36¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-15%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 26¢ $34 $26 −$8 (-23%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 20¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+144%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 96¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+9549%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$49 +92%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $172 +$30 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$103 +102%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $103 −$57 -56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 +$59 +140%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $173 +$29 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $47 +$55 +117%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Group C Jun 11 $20 −$9 -47%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playo Jun 07 $20 +$1 +5%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs My Queen (BO1) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs against All authority (BO3) - European Pro Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Overwatch: Solus Victorem vs HUNENG (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Swiss St Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $15 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $40 −$19 -47%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 87¢ $176 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 87¢ $176 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 78¢ $80 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 23¢ $23 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $47 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $29 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $5 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 80¢ $56 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $3 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $33 16h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 70¢ $72 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 42¢ $44 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No $8 19h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 26¢ $27 19h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 27¢ $28 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $0 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $57 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $38 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $31 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $10 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $6 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $11 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $3 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $7 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $11 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $974.93 · official $974.95 (match) · 1936 history records