Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4d62…5409 sports 993 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,843 (-3%) realized −$6,843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%614W / 365L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$1,735est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$403
7 days+$2,067
14 days+$3,391
30 days+$2,731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$5,799
other 4% +$77
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +48.7% +34.5% 71% 71% +36.4%
≤30d 242 +5.4% -4.6% 63% 63% -4.0%
≤90d 889 -2.0% -11.3% 63% 63% -11.5%
all 979 -2.2% -11.5% 63% 63% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 63% -12.2%
10% -20.0% 61% -20.6%
15% -27.7% 46% -28.3%
20% -34.8% 27% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$185 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses614 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,735
Open positions0
Markets (closed)979 / 993
History coverage99d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 979 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$57 +57%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Bosnia Jun 25 $152 +$171 +112%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half Jun 25 $152 +$100 +66%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $222 +$74 +33%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$122 +120%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Bo Jun 23 $153 +$288 +188%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $111 +$374 +338%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 AND Will Jun 23 $153 +$248 +162%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $127 +$118 +93%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $152 +$76 +50%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $141 +$63 +45%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $152 −$150 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $132 −$130 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $152 +$131 +86%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $203 +$222 +109%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $203 −$200 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $142 −$140 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $202 +$125 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 +$211 +197%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $121 −$120 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$131 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $253 +$163 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $71 +$104 +145%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $203 +$182 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $122 +$97 +79%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $117 +$91 +78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $132 +$133 +101%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $152 +$94 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $152 +$132 +87%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $101 +$43 +43%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AND Jun 17 $150 +$725 +484%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $111 +$69 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $244 +$258 +106%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $303 +$114 +38%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $152 +$98 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $156 +$71 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$95 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Jun 15 $152 +$185 +121%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $142 +$81 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $159 12m
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $222 47h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half BUY 60¢ $152 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $101 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Bosnia BUY 46¢ $152 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Moroc BUY 26¢ $102 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $102 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Bo BUY 34¢ $153 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1. BUY 39¢ $153 3d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $127 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 AND Will BUY 37¢ $153 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $205 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $152 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY 22¢ $111 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $141 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $152 5d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $132 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $283 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $152 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O BUY 44¢ $122 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $203 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $142 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $328 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $318 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $107 5d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $121 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1995 history records