Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d61…cf95
politics · 92 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$21 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage662d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 0 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dejounte Murray lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the Bundesliga? Jan 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Danielle Hunter win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Someone else announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Notre Dame win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will TRUMP reach $1b first? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 19 $0 $0 -2%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 19 $0 $0 -1%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
26-50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 4-10 years in gun case? Dec 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 95% −$20
other 4% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 17h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 24d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 28d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 29d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 37d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 37d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 54d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $21 55d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 55d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 59d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 59d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $60 70d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $33 71d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 71d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 78d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 79d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 87d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 88d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $60 92d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $60 92d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 97d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 98d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 92 -9.1% -17.8% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records