Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d61…77e3 crypto 761 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$681 (-7%) realized −$681 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%328W / 433L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$138
14 days−$138
30 days−$514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,118
sports 4% −$62
other 3% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -16.3% -24.3% 42% 35% -24.3%
≤30d 247 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 38% -25.4%
≤90d 647 -19.4% -27.1% 38% 36% -27.1%
all 761 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 41% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 41% -20.5%
10% -26.0% 39% -28.1%
15% -33.1% 34% -35.0%
20% -39.7% 28% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$681
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses328 / 433
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)761 / 761
History coverage220d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 761 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$34 +218%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $31 +$33 +108%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$11 +108%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$17 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$9 +58%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 −$3 -7%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 +$44 +284%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 +$55 +214%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $18 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$10 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $76 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 32h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 34h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 34h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 34h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 34h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $64 35h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 35h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 35h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 33¢ $11 45h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 30¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $9 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 32¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $22 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 47h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 79¢ $104 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 76¢ $101 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 43¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1907 history records