Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d5e…7f71 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,879 (-23%) realized −$1,879 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day65.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 26% -38.3%
≤30d 62 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 26% -38.3%
≤90d 62 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 26% -38.3%
all 62 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 26% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 26% -38.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 21% -44.2%
15% -43.3% 18% -49.6%
20% -48.9% 10% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$119 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,879
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage2d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day65.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $80 +$30 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $61 +$47 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $135 −$127 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $161 −$151 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $106 +$599 +563%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$563 +750%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $207 −$196 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $280 −$274 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $1,040 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $524 +$179 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $466 +$462 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$75 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$22 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $110 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $19 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $108 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $61 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $166 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $540 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $119 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records