Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d5e…eb0a politics 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% $0
other 33% −$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage139d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $103 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $103 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $208 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Mar 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $102 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $103 15h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $103 20d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $103 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 28d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 29d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 30d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 31d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 38d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 39d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $103 42d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $103 42d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 43d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $103 44d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 46d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $103 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 49d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 49d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $104 69d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $104 69d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 75d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 75d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $104 80d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $104 81d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $104 82d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $104 83d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $104 85d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $105 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records