Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d5d…a753 other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 33% −$13
sports 15% +$55
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 116 +5.7% -4.3% 10% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 8% -9.5%
10% -13.5% 8% -18.1%
15% -21.9% 8% -26.0%
20% -29.5% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×12.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage129d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $220 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $252 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $318 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $272 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $220 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $556 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $299 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $295 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $319 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 18 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $296 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $302 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $277 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $311 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $329 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $319 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $294 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $268 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $87 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 5h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 12h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $31 12h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $31 19h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 43h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 46h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 46h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $259 20d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $259 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 25d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 25d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 25d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 26d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $246 26d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $246 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 27d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $318 27d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $318 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $272 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $272 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 342 history records