Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d5d…6fec other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$8
other 18% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 8% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 40% -5.8%
≤30d 9 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 22% -7.3%
≤90d 9 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 22% -7.3%
all 43 -3.7% -12.9% 51% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 7% -8.5%
10% -21.2% 2% -17.2%
15% -28.8% 0% -25.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage456d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 91¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $53 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $69 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? May 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $9 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $3 $0 -3%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $2 $0 -4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $9 $0 -2%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 07 $2 $0 -23%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $8 +$3 +31%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 25 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n Apr 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $11 $0 +1%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $11 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 22 $12 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $52 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $7 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $55 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $53 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $24 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.93 · official $51.59 (match) · 126 history records