Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d5a…9ed6 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,736 (+16%) realized +$7,285 · open −$549
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%46W / 26L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$570est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$464
7 days+$1,378
14 days+$2,388
30 days+$3,294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$5,810
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.8% +14.7% 60% 40% +22.4%
≤30d 25 +14.5% +3.6% 64% 56% +9.7%
≤90d 72 +9.7% -0.7% 64% 58% +4.4%
all 72 +9.7% -0.7% 64% 58% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 58% +4.4%
10% -10.2% 57% -5.6%
15% -18.9% 51% -14.7%
20% -26.9% 36% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$400 vs −$464 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7,285
Unrealized−$549
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses46 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$570
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage55d
Avg bet$575
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A 6666 34¢ 0¢ $550 $1 −$549 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,012 −$138 -14%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $1,016 +$1,066 +105%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $866 −$151 -18%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) Jun 20 $751 −$176 -24%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,014 +$876 +86%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $467 +$396 +85%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $475 +$283 +60%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $911 +$623 +68%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $456 −$450 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $448 −$442 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $202 +$72 +36%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $707 −$185 -26%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,133 −$76 -7%
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs RoundsGG (+1.5) Jun 09 $83 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $125 +$35 +28%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $771 +$450 +58%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 06 $427 +$185 +43%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $365 +$200 +55%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $98 +$42 +43%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $510 +$303 +59%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $1,526 +$873 +57%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Sta May 28 $10 +$4 +36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 26 $1,013 −$1,001 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 25 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Alliance (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals May 24 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 24 $561 +$743 +132%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi May 23 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Walczaki (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals May 22 $1,012 +$674 +67%
LoL: L Guide Gaming vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 22 $303 +$136 +45%
LoL: Bubliki vs Ronaldo Team (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 21 $1,125 +$848 +75%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo May 21 $1,009 +$441 +44%
LoL: Francesinhas vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 21 $39 +$5 +13%
LoL: New Meta vs Rising Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $1,015 +$1,033 +102%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo May 20 $1,017 +$1,306 +128%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Map Handicap: EAC (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 18 $994 −$984 -99%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe Academy vs Rising Gaming (BO3) - LJL Regular S May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe Academy vs Rising Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 15 $1,021 −$1,001 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs May 14 $852 +$687 +81%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs May 14 $1,028 +$469 +46%
LoL: Uwinks vs L Guide Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs NeverPlay - Map 1 Winner May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rare Atom - Map 2 Winner May 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Kaleido Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 12 $506 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 30¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 34¢ $510 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 52¢ $874 44h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 60¢ $506 44h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 58¢ $506 44h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 62¢ $1,011 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL ECHO 100¢ $2,081 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 48¢ $1,016 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 49¢ $1 5d
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $1 6d
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 49¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 49¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 52¢ $600 6d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 44¢ $102 6d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY xept 65¢ $386 8d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY xept 65¢ $65 8d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY xept 65¢ $2 8d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY xept 65¢ $65 8d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY xept 65¢ $2 8d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY xept 65¢ $65 8d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY xept 65¢ $65 8d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY xept 67¢ $101 8d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 63¢ $112 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 65¢ $0 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 65¢ $262 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 65¢ $130 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 65¢ $22 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 65¢ $15 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 65¢ $186 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 65¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.81 (match) · 396 history records