Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d59…1e2f
crypto · 442 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$842 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$808 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$302
Realized+$808
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses200 / 168
Open positions74
Markets (closed)368 / 442
History coverage136d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 74 History 368 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$32
14 days+$150
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 24¢ 76¢ $17 $52 +$35 (+210%)
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 35¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 84¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 82¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 60¢ 99¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+64%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-46%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 71¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 17¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 60¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 79¢ 97¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 26¢ 32¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-47%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +45%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +163%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$28 +276%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 5? Jun 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $4 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$13 +259%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 36% +$27
politics 24% −$73
other 17% +$11
world 13% +$167
economics 6% +$709
sports 3% +$3
tech 1% −$23
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 57m
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 58m
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 58m
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 59m
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 59m
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 59m
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 70¢ $6 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -33.5% -39.8% 50% 25% -34.4%
≤30d 99 +11.8% +1.2% 58% 28% +27.9%
≤90d 228 -9.9% -18.4% 51% 17% -4.2%
all 368 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 16% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 16% +20.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 11% +8.5%
15% -31.6% 10% -2.0%
20% -38.3% 8% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.03 · official $298.45 · 3500 history records