Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d56…2990 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$159 (+9%) realized +$161 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 30L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days+$92
14 days+$131
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$182
other 28% −$74
crypto 3% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +35.0% +22.1% 59% 52% -4.1%
≤30d 62 +12.1% +1.5% 52% 47% -2.1%
≤90d 63 +12.3% +1.6% 52% 48% -2.0%
all 63 +12.3% +1.6% 52% 48% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 48% -2.0%
10% -8.1% 44% -11.4%
15% -17.0% 33% -19.9%
20% -25.1% 22% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 30
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)63 / 70
History coverage31d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 50¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 38¢ 36¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$30 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $38 +$12 +32%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 +$13 +31%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $13 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 +$61 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 +$15 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $9 +$9 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 +$1 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 +$8 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$27 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$31 +180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $52 +$17 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $52 +$4 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 +$14 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $49 +$52 +105%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$35 +1469%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 +$38 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $146 +$48 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $56 +$29 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $54 +$22 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 +$103 +414%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 +$42 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $27 +$11 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $19 +$8 +42%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $21 49m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $48 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $37 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $14 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $4 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $15 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $8 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $31 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 26¢ $4 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $38 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $17 18h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime 43¢ $1 19h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime 43¢ $23 19h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime 43¢ $1 19h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime 43¢ $1 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $18 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $30 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $41 22h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 83¢ $13 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $12 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $35 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $19 24h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) SELL Fritz 37¢ $3 27h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) SELL Fritz 37¢ $6 27h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) SELL Fritz 37¢ $5 27h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 84¢ $35 28h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $20 28h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 41¢ $25 30h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) BUY Fritz 34¢ $13 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.41 · official $166.95 (match) · 167 history records