Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d56…470f crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 740d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$126 (-1%) realized −$130 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%32W / 22L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$599
other 15% −$407
sports 10% −$383
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -6.8% -15.7% 63% 33% -10.3%
≤30d 51 -6.8% -15.7% 63% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 51 -6.8% -15.7% 63% 33% -10.3%
all 54 -10.2% -18.7% 59% 31% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 31% -11.4%
10% -26.5% 24% -19.9%
15% -33.6% 15% -27.6%
20% -40.1% 11% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$66 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

740d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses32 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage740d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $150 $172 +$22 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $150 $119 −$31 (-21%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 87¢ 100¢ $70 $80 +$10 (+15%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$10 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$264 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +137%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $315 +$732 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 +$14 +276%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $201 +$52 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $302 +$26 +8%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? Jun 14 $294 −$294 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$60 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $302 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $405 +$100 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $303 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $713 −$64 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $127 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 87¢ $70 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $238 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 55¢ $19 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 56¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $315 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $301 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.18 · official $378.30 (match) · 128 history records