Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d55…8d9f other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%39W / 2L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$19
crypto 32% +$2
world 9% +$2
politics 7% +$1
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 41 +0.5% -9.1% 95% 2% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -8.3%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.1%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.1%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses39 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage539d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–$3.25 in May? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 11 $29 +$1 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 23 $112 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Mar 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28? Mar 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? Jan 29 $214 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 23 $26 +$1 +4%
GTA VI released in 2025? Jan 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Nov 26 $28 $0 +1%
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15? Nov 20 $20 +$28 +138%
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 2? Oct 03 $68 $0 +0%
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31? Sep 01 $24 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Aug 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $81 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 10? Apr 13 $28 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Bybit insolvent before April? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? Mar 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? Mar 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 1025-1049 times Feb 7-14? Feb 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? Feb 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17? Jan 15 $24 −$11 -46%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 07 $27 +$1 +3%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 04 $27 $0 +1%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 in December? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $85 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–$3.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 29d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–$3.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $87 46d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 59d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 100¢ $112 98d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $102 101d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $33 120d
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? BUY Silver 100¢ $185 148d
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? BUY Silver 100¢ $29 148d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 148d
GTA VI released in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $36 188d
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15? BUY No 42¢ $20 221d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $26 240d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 253d
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 2? BUY No 100¢ $68 261d
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $24 296d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? BUY No 97¢ $19 329d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 100¢ $19 381d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? BUY Down 100¢ $39 401d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? BUY No 100¢ $19 422d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $81 434d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 10? BUY Up 98¢ $28 437d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7? BUY Down 100¢ $23 439d
Bybit insolvent before April? BUY No 100¢ $14 453d
Solana all time high by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 455d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 463d
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 466d
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? BUY No 100¢ $28 466d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.49 · official $122.49 (match) · 88 history records