Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d53…2204 crypto 1680 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$234 (+3%) realized +$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate76%1326W / 409L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days−$157
14 days−$177
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$190
sports 0% +$5
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -24.6% -31.8% 61% 61% -24.3%
≤30d 536 -8.6% -17.3% 72% 72% -13.8%
≤90d 1632 -3.2% -12.4% 76% 74% -11.8%
all 1735 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 74% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 74% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 31% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 12% -27.8%
20% -35.2% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1326 / 409
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1735 / 1680
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1735 Trades
no open positions (371 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$7 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.10 · official $6.10 (match) · 3500 history records