Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d51…a290 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$318 (+6%) realized +$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate82%27W / 6L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$59
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 28% +$79
economics 22% +$37
other 22% +$72
sports 16% +$79
politics 6% +$14
world 3% +$34
finance 3% +$3
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 17% -6.3%
≤30d 8 +7.1% -3.1% 62% 38% -1.2%
≤90d 13 +34.2% +21.4% 77% 31% +4.3%
all 33 +8.2% -2.1% 82% 21% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 21% -3.5%
10% -11.5% 9% -12.8%
15% -20.1% 9% -21.2%
20% -27.9% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses27 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage238d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $85 $84 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 27 $638 +$26 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $11 −$3 -30%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $9 +$6 +64%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $160 +$34 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $165 +$35 +21%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 10 $343 +$12 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 28 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 24 $42 +$158 +376%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 05 $136 +$4 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 04 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $24 −$24 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $281 +$4 +1%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 16 $260 +$18 +7%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $408 +$54 +13%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $248 +$5 +2%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $237 +$3 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 25 $373 +$17 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 24 $176 +$5 +3%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 24 $175 +$1 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 19 $167 +$3 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $162 +$10 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 27 $147 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 23? Nov 27 $72 +$5 +8%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 20 $142 +$6 +4%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 06 $35 +$4 +11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Nov 03 $33 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $184 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $106 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 7h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $60 15h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $13 16h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $19 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 21h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 22h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $65 26h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $86 43h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $79 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $10 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $93 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $92 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $91 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $7 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $20 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $18 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $46 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $93 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.50 · official $84.50 (match) · 213 history records