Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d4f…2605 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,387 (-45%) realized −$2,959 · open −$428
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$579per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$979
30 days−$979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$2,700
sports 35% −$1,792
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-84.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -38.0% -43.9% 33% 33% -15.5%
≤30d 5 -62.8% -66.3% 20% 20% -67.6%
≤90d 5 -62.8% -66.3% 20% 20% -67.6%
all 11 -83.1% -84.7% 9% 9% -89.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.7% 9% -89.2%
10% -86.2% 9% -90.2%
15% -87.5% 9% -91.2%
20% -88.7% 9% -92.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$432 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$1,591
Realized−$2,959
Unrealized−$428
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage186d
Avg bet$579
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 52¢ $1,677 $1,349 −$327 (-20%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 26¢ $343 $242 −$101 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $294 +$253 +86%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $197 −$192 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $589 −$250 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $698 −$690 -99%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $1,091 −$1,091 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $383 −$50 -13%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $318 −$134 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,695 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $95 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $255 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $294 3h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $94 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $51 11h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $51 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 23¢ $256 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 70¢ $1,257 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $26 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $307 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $698 10d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $1,091 108d
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 23¢ $25 142d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Fiziev 55¢ $50 143d
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Tuivasa 15¢ $50 143d
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Teixeira 75¢ $317 143d
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Teixeira 82¢ $284 143d
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Teixeira 62¢ $49 143d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes $84 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes $100 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? SELL Yes $184 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes $50 185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $400 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes $168 186d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,250 186d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,591.29 · official $1,591.29 (match) · 29 history records