Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4d4e…c662 sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$558 (+6%) realized +$558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%78W / 5L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days+$96
14 days+$229
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$137
other 1% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +16.9% +5.8% 86% 27% -8.1%
≤30d 82 +6.9% -3.3% 94% 12% -7.6%
≤90d 83 +6.8% -3.4% 94% 12% -7.6%
all 83 +6.8% -3.4% 94% 12% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 12% -7.6%
10% -12.6% 7% -16.5%
15% -21.1% 6% -24.6%
20% -28.8% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$105 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses78 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage31d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $436 +$50 +12%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $616 −$382 -62%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $373 +$11 +3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $684 +$24 +3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $238 +$11 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $505 +$32 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $879 +$51 +6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $725 +$35 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $251 +$12 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $236 +$10 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $224 +$7 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$70 +172%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $39 +$1 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $167 +$7 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 +$55 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$42 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 +$58 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 −$40 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $180 +$7 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $312 +$35 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $118 +$8 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $328 +$36 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $70 +$7 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $276 +$14 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $138 +$6 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $307 +$14 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $137 +$37 +27%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $58 +$3 +5%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $62 +$2 +4%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $52 +$2 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $63 +$2 +3%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $52 +$2 +3%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $54 +$2 +3%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $59 +$2 +4%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $125 +$2 +1%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $52 +$2 +4%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $51 +$2 +3%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $53 +$2 +4%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $28 +$1 +5%
Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $51 +$2 +4%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $53 +$2 +4%
Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $53 +$2 +4%
Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $28 +$1 +4%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $103 −$53 -52%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $50 +$2 +4%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $51 +$2 +3%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $52 +$2 +3%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $361 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 26¢ $174 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 28¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 28¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 28¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 28¢ $19 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 28¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 28¢ $7 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 28¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 28¢ $9 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $75 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $69 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $79 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $88 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $57 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $13 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $66 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $213 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $32 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $117 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $150 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $96 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $21 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $373 9h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $135 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $135 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $40 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $1 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $49 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $352 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 409 history records