Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4D 0x4d4e…e358 crypto 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%112W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$13
14 days+$21
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +3.5% -6.4% 62% 58% -5.4%
≤30d 172 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 52% -8.9%
≤90d 172 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 52% -8.9%
all 172 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 52% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 52% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 39% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 28% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses112 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage25d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$7 +676%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$5 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +126%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$4 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 307 history records