Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d4b…9f84 crypto 376 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (219 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%197W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day219.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (219 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 374 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 53% -10.6%
≤30d 374 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 53% -10.6%
≤90d 374 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 53% -10.6%
all 374 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 53% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover219.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 53% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 52% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 51% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 44% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses197 / 177
Open positions2
Markets (closed)374 / 376
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day219.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 65¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.41 · official $2.93 (match) · 744 history records