Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d47…dd12
crypto · 1023 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$952 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$951 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$951
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses811 / 210
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1021 / 1023
History coverage10d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day144.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1021 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$943
14 days−$951
30 days−$951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Under 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$19 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$912
sports 1% −$23
other 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1006 -4.4% -13.5% 80% 52% -13.9%
≤30d 1021 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 52% -14.0%
≤90d 1021 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 52% -14.0%
all 1021 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 52% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover144.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 52% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 8% -22.2%
15% -29.5% 6% -29.7%
20% -36.4% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.54 · official $11.24 (match) · 2205 history records