Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d45…670d
crypto · 256 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$223 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$444 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses171 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage64d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 256 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$6
14 days−$60
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $598 $0 −$598 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $161 +$17 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $123 +$53 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $229 +$10 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $145 −$4 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$2 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$15 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$17 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$17 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $29 −$15 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$4 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$5 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$4 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$5 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$10 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $57 −$37 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $18 +$9 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $45 +$12 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$13 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $23 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $23 −$22 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$3 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$444
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $178 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $161 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $123 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $126 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $113 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $127 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $86 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $71 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $61 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $46 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.7% -12.0% 69% 48% -9.9%
≤30d 107 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 54% -15.3%
≤90d 256 -4.0% -13.2% 67% 56% -11.6%
all 256 -4.0% -13.2% 67% 56% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 56% -11.6%
10% -21.5% 39% -20.1%
15% -29.1% 21% -27.8%
20% -36.0% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 791 history records