Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d45…ad4a crypto 432 markets active 5d ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-5%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%136W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$39
14 days−$64
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$237
sports 29% −$77
world 13% +$160
other 5% −$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -69.4% -72.3% 6% 6% -26.8%
≤30d 432 -15.5% -23.5% 31% 29% -19.3%
≤90d 432 -15.5% -23.5% 31% 29% -19.3%
all 432 -15.5% -23.5% 31% 29% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 29% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 24% -27.0%
15% -37.5% 20% -34.1%
20% -43.6% 17% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses136 / 296
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)432 / 432
History coverage24d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 432 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $147 −$6 -4%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $0 $0 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on May 31? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 1? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 $0 -8%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -75%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 31? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BNB dip to $600 in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $4 +$2 +60%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $2 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 01 $2 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 01 $2 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 01 $4 $0 -5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $13 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $9 $0 +5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries May 31 $3 +$1 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 $0 -3%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $3 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 49¢ $9 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 51¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1540 history records