Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d44…49e6 sports 1098 markets active 0h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,001 (-5%) realized −$7,001 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%560W / 538L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$913est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$497
7 days−$2,248
14 days+$131
30 days−$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$6,891
crypto 22% −$969
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 52% -28.1%
≤30d 206 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 55% -10.2%
≤90d 423 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 48% -15.7%
all 1098 -2.5% -11.8% 51% 49% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 49% -14.7%
10% -20.3% 45% -22.9%
15% -28.0% 41% -30.3%
20% -35.0% 34% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$93 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,001
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses560 / 538
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$913
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1098 / 1098
History coverage191d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1098 Trades
no open positions (311 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $224 +$78 +35%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $167 +$56 +33%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $277 +$89 +32%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $227 +$50 +22%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $201 +$27 +13%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $241 −$237 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $201 +$41 +20%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $270 −$267 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $202 −$132 -65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $70 −$25 -36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $411 −$163 -40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $311 +$91 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $162 +$149 +92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $144 +$19 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $463 −$319 -69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $342 +$121 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $926 −$785 -85%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $805 +$121 +15%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $383 −$175 -46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $577 +$228 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $388 +$189 +49%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $222 +$166 +74%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$22 +11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $239 −$234 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $244 −$240 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $307 +$176 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $192 +$116 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $128 +$64 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $84 +$44 +53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $55 +$29 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $138 −$136 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $90 +$48 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $107 −$18 -16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $272 −$73 -27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$81 +81%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $199 −$196 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $386 −$381 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $296 −$215 -72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $296 −$291 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $636 +$474 +74%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $989 +$936 +95%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $555 −$546 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,106 +$439 +40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $789 +$318 +40%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $492 +$297 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $302 6m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 74¢ $224 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $223 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 74¢ $167 2h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $366 16h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 75¢ $277 17h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $277 17h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 81¢ $227 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $227 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 88¢ $201 21h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 64¢ $202 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $241 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $242 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 83¢ $201 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $270 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 24¢ $70 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $202 27h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 32¢ $45 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 48¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 70¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $39 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 8¢ $38 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 42¢ $209 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $210 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $402 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $311 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2205 history records