Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d41…638d world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%15W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$4
other 25% −$2
politics 21% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 1% −$2
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 47 -4.3% -13.4% 32% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses15 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage317d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $47 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $35 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $67 −$3 -5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? Aug 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 08 $63 $0 +0%
Will US airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 06 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $35 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $27 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $9 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $35 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $38 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $38 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.39 · official $34.58 (match) · 162 history records