Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d40…398d crypto 307 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2343 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$17,096 (+37%) realized +$17,096 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +120% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +69% what you keep after slip
Net edge+69%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate35%270W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2343.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2343 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+99.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 489 +193.2% +165.2% 40% 39% +9.2%
≤30d 779 +120.0% +99.1% 35% 28% -8.3%
≤90d 779 +120.0% +99.1% 35% 28% -8.3%
all 779 +120.0% +99.1% 35% 28% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2343.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +99.1% 28% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here +80.0% 27% -17.0%
15% +62.6% 26% -25.1%
20% +46.7% 25% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +120% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +264% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,865
Realized+$17,096
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses270 / 509
Open positions0
Markets (closed)779 / 307
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2343.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 779 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $800 +$991 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$65 +91%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -82%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +223%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -446%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -431%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +748%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +421%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +381%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +603%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -232%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +706%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +606%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +153%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +750%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +279%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +239%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +276%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +284%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +229%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +312%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +296%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -945%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -57%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +431%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +291%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +289%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +642%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +118%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +473%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +360%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +225%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +282%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +705%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -356%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +608%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +308%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +326%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -17%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +638%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,864.80 · official $1,743.42 · 3500 history records