Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4d40…561e crypto 1331 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%635W / 597L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$223
14 days+$338
30 days+$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$250
other 11% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 487 +11.7% +1.1% 72% 72% +1.3%
≤30d 872 +10.9% +0.4% 59% 59% +1.1%
≤90d 1232 +4.0% -5.9% 52% 51% -2.3%
all 1232 +4.0% -5.9% 52% 51% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 51% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 51% -11.6%
15% -23.2% 50% -20.2%
20% -30.7% 34% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses635 / 597
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1232 / 1331
History coverage38d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 74¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $3.86 · 2068 history records