Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d3f…4851 weather 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-11%) realized −$98 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%77W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$20
14 days+$11
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$79
crypto 33% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -15.0% -23.1% 55% 55% -18.8%
≤30d 118 -9.5% -18.2% 53% 53% -10.6%
≤90d 168 -22.6% -30.0% 46% 46% -21.9%
all 168 -22.6% -30.0% 46% 46% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 46% -21.9%
10% -36.7% 45% -29.4%
15% -42.8% 33% -36.2%
20% -48.4% 17% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses77 / 91
Open positions6
Markets (closed)168 / 174
History coverage48d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? No 70¢ 100¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? No 70¢ 99¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? No 69¢ 96¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? No 74¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 74¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? No 74¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$5 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$4 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6? Jun 07 $7 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $13 +$56 +445%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$6 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $7 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 56¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $9 42h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 52¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.70 · official $48.69 (match) · 291 history records