Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d3e…82a1 crypto 1719 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate84%1439W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$215
14 days−$264
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
other 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 -3.6% -12.8% 79% 46% -15.6%
≤30d 1202 -7.6% -16.4% 77% 41% -13.4%
≤90d 1719 -0.1% -9.6% 84% 46% -10.2%
all 1719 -0.1% -9.6% 84% 46% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 46% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 23% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 8% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1439 / 280
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1719 / 1719
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1719 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$12 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records