Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d3e…783b
crypto · 386 markets active 4d ago
5.0score
+$76,703 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$72,070 · open +$6,363
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$30,965
Realized+$72,070
Unrealized+$6,363
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses241 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions19
Markets (closed)370 / 386
Avg bet$695
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 19 History 370 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$180
14 days+$39,212
30 days+$37,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 52¢ 86¢ $6,325 $10,430 +$4,105 (+65%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 96¢ $7,456 $9,296 +$1,840 (+25%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? No 30¢ 67¢ $1,979 $4,391 +$2,412 (+122%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 30¢ $2,745 $1,350 −$1,395 (-51%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 38¢ $752 $937 +$185 (+25%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 30¢ 97¢ $272 $882 +$610 (+225%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 66¢ $620 $655 +$35 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 43¢ 73¢ $352 $600 +$248 (+70%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 54¢ 39¢ $819 $596 −$222 (-27%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 59¢ 36¢ $693 $431 −$262 (-38%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $270 $289 +$19 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $235 $254 +$19 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 54¢ 23¢ $474 $202 −$272 (-57%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 56¢ 83¢ $123 $181 +$58 (+48%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 65¢ $142 $168 +$26 (+18%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 46¢ 14¢ $460 $135 −$325 (-71%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 45¢ 52¢ $117 $134 +$17 (+14%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? No 64¢ 88¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+38%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $746 $1 −$745 (-100%)
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match goes to Day 3? No 18¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 05 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,080 +$920 +85%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $1,645 +$532 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 31 $19,626 +$15,662 +80%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 30 $1,957 +$43 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $1,800 +$1,200 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $8,329 +$9,967 +120%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 29 $16,575 +$11,068 +67%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 28 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 26 $582 −$582 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 22 $3,605 +$1,286 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 19 $2,299 −$2,299 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of May 11 2026? May 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $670 Week of May 11 2026? May 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of May 11 2026? May 18 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $987 +$13 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $650 +$350 +54%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June? May 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Bangladesh win? May 12 $500 +$500 +100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 12 $1,614 +$559 +35%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $860 −$860 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 11 $660 +$339 +51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $1,219 −$1,219 -100%
Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 11 $2,199 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 08 $710 +$220 +31%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $540 +$460 +85%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $510 +$490 +96%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 06 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026? May 01 $11 +$9 +85%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $530 +$470 +89%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April? May 01 $490 +$510 +104%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 01 $1,927 +$46 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $1,372 +$1,428 +104%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 30 $890 +$110 +12%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 29 $660 −$660 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $500 +$301 +60%
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 28 $163 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 28 $1,975 +$25 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 28 $1,996 +$4 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on April 20? Apr 22 $480 −$480 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 22 $950 +$48 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on April 20? Apr 21 $85 +$4 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $249 +$23 +9%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $1,860 +$140 +8%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 19 $415 −$415 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings - Te Apr 19 $400 −$400 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 19 $650 +$350 +54%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 19 $2,930 +$48 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 18 $7,573 +$16,927 +224%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 18 $1,978 +$22 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 37% +$62,260
other 24% +$11,407
sports 24% +$2,308
crypto 13% +$2,144
tech 1% +$264
world 1% −$11
politics 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $465 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $708 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 6d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $636 6d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $0 6d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $0 6d
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY No 18¢ $184 6d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $128 7d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $129 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $310 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $310 7d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $33 7d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $35 7d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $455 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $456 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $4 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $27 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $51 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6,635 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $3,164 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $22 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $4,000 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $1,000 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $120 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $22 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $100 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 72% 44% +47.6%
≤90d 197 +6.6% -3.5% 74% 35% +21.8%
all 370 +8.7% -1.6% 65% 43% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 43% +16.1%
10% -11.1% 42% +5.0%
15% ← realistic here -19.7% 39% -5.2%
20% -27.5% 36% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,965.14 · official $30,965.14 (match) · 3500 history records