Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d3e…2e20 weather 390 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,174 (-5%) realized −$1,068 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate57%215W / 165L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days+$101
14 days+$189
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$910
other 26% +$441
world 10% −$764
crypto 5% −$8
politics 3% +$245
sports 1% −$282
economics 1% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.6% -22.7% 38% 24% -6.9%
≤30d 59 +0.2% -9.4% 34% 29% -9.4%
≤90d 352 -0.5% -9.9% 59% 31% -16.1%
all 380 -3.7% -12.9% 57% 30% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 30% -16.0%
10% -21.2% 13% -24.1%
15% -28.8% 10% -31.4%
20% -35.8% 8% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$35 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,546
Realized−$1,068
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses215 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)380 / 390
History coverage112d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,075 $912 −$162 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $185 $252 +$68 (+36%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $150 $135 −$15 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $69 $62 −$6 (-9%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 60¢ $12 $60 +$48 (+396%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 26¢ 26¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $82 −$42 -51%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $383 +$65 +17%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $375 −$10 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $525 +$9 +2%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $18 −$10 -57%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Czechia be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group S Jun 25 $260 +$17 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$75 +307%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $18 +$81 +442%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $603 +$95 +16%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $835 +$114 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $116 +$184 +158%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $146 −$144 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$90 +874%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $34 −$32 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 +$64 +180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$91 +980%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $719 +$95 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $407 +$92 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$19 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$4 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 7? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $134 −$133 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $63 −$6 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 26¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $28 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $72 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $190 7h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 32¢ $51 7h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 32¢ $51 7h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 51¢ $0 8h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $29 8h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $2 8h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $3 8h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $7 8h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 8h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $82 8h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 100¢ $448 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $412 11h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 84¢ $24 28h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $365 28h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 28h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 85¢ $359 28h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 28h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $375 28h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 28h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $237 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 18¢ $18 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $523 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 39h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 8¢ $8 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 11¢ $11 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,546.42 · official $1,546.42 (match) · 1643 history records