Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d3d…ac3e
crypto · 464 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$187,574 -1768%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$187,572 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$187,572
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses171 / 597
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)768 / 464
History coverage84d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 768 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184,216
7 days−$184,239
14 days−$184,239
30 days−$184,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 53¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $918 $0 −$918 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $540 $0 −$540 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $856 $0 −$856 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $3,273 $0 −$3,273 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $993 $0 −$993 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$87 -216%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $918 −$918 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $540 −$540 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $856 −$1,731 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $75 −$201 -267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $3,273 −$6,617 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $993 −$993 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$160 -319%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$41 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $129 −$255 -198%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$19 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2,898 −$5,814 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $433 −$433 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $92 −$193 -210%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $482 −$969 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $439 −$883 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$53 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $646 −$876 -136%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$74 -194%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$47 -194%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$33 -6889%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $56 −$113 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $118 −$237 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $165 −$157 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $525 −$525 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $68 −$136 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $154 −$154 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$145 -263%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $202 −$202 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$3,420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 712 -47.9% -52.8% 22% 20% -99.2%
≤30d 712 -47.9% -52.8% 22% 20% -99.2%
≤90d 768 -46.5% -51.6% 22% 20% -95.7%
all 768 -46.5% -51.6% 22% 20% -95.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.6% 20% -95.7%
10% ← realistic here -56.2% 17% -96.2%
15% -60.5% 14% -96.5%
20% -64.3% 12% -96.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.22 · official $2.24 (match) · 3500 history records