Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4D 0x4d3c…0aab other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$948 (-19%) realized −$944 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$200per market

Trades / day12.1pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+10.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+22.0%	+10.4%	57%	57%	-27.8%
≤30d	21	+22.0%	+10.4%	57%	57%	-27.8%
≤90d	21	+22.0%	+10.4%	57%	57%	-27.8%
all	21	+22.0%	+10.4%	57%	57%	-27.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.4%	57%	-27.8%
10%	-0.2%	43%	-34.7%
15%	-9.8%	43%	-41.0%
20%	-18.7%	33%	-46.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +67% → late -19% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$110 vs −$253 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.58 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$256

Realized−$944

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)21 / 25

History coverage5d

Avg bet$200

Trades / day12.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$150	$148	−$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$156	+$28	+18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$413	+$178	+43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$200	+$94	+47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$209	−$207	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,780	−$1,775	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$17	−$17	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 15	$26	+$20	+76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$213	+$196	+92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$87	−$85	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$61	−$60	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 14	$107	+$15	+14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$31	+$136	+442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 14	$26	+$19	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 14	$26	+$16	+62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$72	−$47	-66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$278	−$28	-10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 13	$51	−$4	-8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$510	+$68	+13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$205	+$205	+100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$209	+$346	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$102	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$50	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$31	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	85¢	$185	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$156	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$592	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$121	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$293	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$293	9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$200	16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$7	36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	87¢	$40	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	87¢	$452	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	88¢	$6	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$351	37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$17	39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$931	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$409	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$122	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	36¢	$25	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$122	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$102	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.46 · official $256.46 (match) · 64 history records