Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4d3b…761d other 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$8
politics 21% −$3
sports 5% +$7
economics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 7% -9.6%
all 112 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 7% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage90d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $281 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $309 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $316 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $274 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $212 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $306 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $104 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $208 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $101 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $221 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 29m
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 25h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 28h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 10d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 24d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $105 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.51 · official $78.51 (match) · 315 history records