Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d39…bf90 crypto 782 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-7%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%309W / 472L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$10
other 12% −$84
sports 8% +$18
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 292 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 60% -7.5%
≤30d 292 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 60% -7.5%
≤90d 749 -15.5% -23.6% 39% 31% -11.5%
all 781 -15.6% -23.7% 40% 32% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 32% -19.4%
10% -31.0% 21% -27.1%
15% -37.6% 15% -34.2%
20% -43.8% 12% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses309 / 472
Open positions1
Markets (closed)781 / 782
History coverage178d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 459 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 1288 history records