Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d39…e6f6 crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$15 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%91W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$22
14 days+$1
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% +$19
crypto 29% −$44
other 1% −$1
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.1% -16.8% 73% 55% -2.5%
≤30d 205 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 38% -12.0%
≤90d 205 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 38% -12.0%
all 205 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 38% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 38% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 32% -20.4%
15% -39.8% 28% -28.1%
20% -45.7% 26% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses91 / 114
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)205 / 213
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? No 85¢ 83¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $31 +$9 +30%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$7 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $78 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 18h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $70 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $41 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $31 41h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $63 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $60 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 37¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $63 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $56 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $50 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.23 · official $91.23 (match) · 504 history records