Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d37…f270 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate52%51W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$15
politics 15% $0
other 13% −$3
sports 11% +$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 30 +1.1% -8.6% 47% 3% -8.9%
≤90d 80 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 2% -9.1%
all 98 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 4% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 4% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses51 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage531d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 77¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $132 +$10 +8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $56 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $68 −$3 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $64 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $84 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $87 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $98 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $80 +$3 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $151 +$4 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $29 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $16 +$3 +22%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $91 −$6 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $21 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $9 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $75 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $3 +$1 +41%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $6 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $48 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $56 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $44 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $64 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $64 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $30 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $17 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $19 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $39 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $0.00 · 407 history records