Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d32…9dfc sports 94 markets active 6h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$97,178 (-11%) realized −$93,199 · open −$3,979
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 35L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,692per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$5,457est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$95,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$519
7 days−$3,049
14 days−$584
30 days−$18,142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$94,678
other 46% −$2,298
crypto 1% +$448
weather 0% −$1,521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -30.5% -37.1% 64% 9% -11.3%
≤30d 28 -8.0% -16.8% 68% 21% -15.3%
≤90d 79 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 19% -20.0%
all 79 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 19% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 19% -20.0%
10% -28.0% 13% -27.7%
15% ← realistic here -35.0% 11% -34.7%
20% -41.3% 9% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$7,685) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$804 vs −$3,808 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$95,461
Realized−$93,199
Unrealized−$3,979
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$5,457
Open positions15
Markets (closed)79 / 94
History coverage72d
Avg bet$9,692
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $21,825 $21,938 +$114 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $16,900 $13,250 −$3,650 (-22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $8,517 $10,650 +$2,133 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10,800 $10,450 −$350 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10,271 $10,150 −$121 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8,400 $6,650 −$1,750 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5,200 $5,650 +$450 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4,000 $4,450 +$450 (+11%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 82¢ 72¢ $3,741 $3,307 −$433 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2,400 $2,650 +$250 (+10%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $2,606 $2,190 −$416 (-16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,100 $1,650 −$450 (-21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,868 $1,650 −$218 (-12%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 84¢ 85¢ $718 $729 +$11 (+2%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 90¢ 92¢ $95 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $104,096 +$361 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $267 +$158 +59%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $6,440 +$6 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28,195 +$28 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $6,664 +$7 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2,565 +$5 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $820 −$820 -100%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 12 $178 −$173 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $1,107 −$1,101 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? Jun 12 $1,521 −$1,521 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $13,352 +$2,467 +18%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $17,691 +$18 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $55,251 +$444 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20,496 −$19,459 -95%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $249 −$249 -100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $999 +$19 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $463 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $439 −$15 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $17,703 +$122 +1%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 25 $155 +$17 +11%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 24 $304 +$400 +132%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $282 −$265 -94%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $587 +$1,307 +223%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $3,456 +$97 +3%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $194 +$460 +238%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 14 $1,453 −$1,453 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $10,669 −$10,669 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $757 +$232 +31%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5,182 +$818 +16%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $2,067 −$2,056 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $3,100 −$3,084 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $7,868 +$7,949 +101%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $4,369 +$1,731 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $1,658 −$1,632 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $7,685 −$7,685 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1,231 −$1,211 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1,847 −$1,847 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $8,677 +$18,044 +208%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $483 −$473 -98%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $61,741 +$65 +0%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $73,041 −$72,951 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 07 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 06 $2,503 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? BUY No 90¢ $95 5h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 84¢ $722 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $567 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $3,655 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $8 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $9 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $211 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $9 10h
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY Yes 100¢ $995 12h
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 23h
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,089 23h
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY Yes 99¢ $491 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $133 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $129 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 42h
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 46h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $200 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $10 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $363 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $2 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $231 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $8 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $710 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $558 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $153 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $39 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $35 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $38 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $445 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95,460.97 · official $95,460.97 (match) · 2927 history records