Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d2f…61ee other 354 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,846 (-6%) realized −$3,010 · open +$1,164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate77%241W / 73L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$9,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$290
14 days−$271
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$1,464
crypto 21% −$236
sports 9% −$443
world 2% +$149
politics 1% −$15
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.0% -22.2% 57% 50% -22.9%
≤30d 32 -13.7% -22.0% 53% 47% -22.8%
≤90d 36 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 42% -29.6%
all 314 -6.1% -15.1% 77% 16% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 16% -23.6%
10% -23.2% 13% -30.9%
15% -30.6% 9% -37.6%
20% -37.4% 6% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$66 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$9,041
Realized−$3,010
Unrealized+$1,164
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses241 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions40
Markets (closed)314 / 354
History coverage564d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $2,077 $2,269 +$192 (+9%)
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $827 $1,065 +$239 (+29%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $656 $786 +$130 (+20%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 84¢ $463 $583 +$120 (+26%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $387 $469 +$82 (+21%)
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $283 $359 +$76 (+27%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 72¢ $305 $325 +$21 (+7%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $334 $308 −$26 (-8%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $254 $276 +$22 (+9%)
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $194 $201 +$8 (+4%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $204 $201 −$3 (-2%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $193 $199 +$7 (+3%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $180 $198 +$18 (+10%)
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 66¢ 80¢ $129 $157 +$28 (+22%)
Will RISE launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 81¢ $120 $136 +$16 (+13%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 No 65¢ 81¢ $94 $117 +$24 (+25%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 33¢ 57¢ $67 $115 +$48 (+73%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 46¢ $80 $115 +$35 (+43%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $86 $102 +$15 (+18%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 81¢ 86¢ $94 $99 +$5 (+6%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 90¢ $77 $90 +$12 (+16%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 79¢ $92 $89 −$3 (-4%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 64¢ $101 $81 −$20 (-20%)
Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 50¢ $23 $78 +$55 (+233%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $75 −$30 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $69 +$30 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $307 −$129 -42%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $66 +$34 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Falcons qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $27 +$8 +29%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $102 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $70 +$41 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $256 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $53 +$62 +119%
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $35 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $182 +$18 +10%
Will FURIA qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $35 +$15 +43%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $69 +$38 +55%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 −$36 -72%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $59 −$7 -12%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 11 $110 −$43 -39%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? May 02 $69 +$4 +6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 26 $98 −$20 -20%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $213 −$213 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Mar 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 19 $734 −$506 -69%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Mar 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 17 $873 −$621 -71%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 17 $564 −$203 -36%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 30 $334 −$146 -44%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 30 $72 −$48 -67%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 14 $77 −$23 -30%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 14 $20 −$6 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 45¢ $44 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $75 35h
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? SELL No 40¢ $10 2d
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? SELL No 40¢ $0 2d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 4d
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 4d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $54 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $31 4d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $13 4d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $16 4d
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 4d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 65¢ $66 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 11¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $4 5d
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 74¢ $74 5d
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 82¢ $49 5d
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 95¢ $184 5d
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 5d
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 90¢ $92 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $53 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,041.38 · official $9,041.39 (match) · 1106 history records