Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d2f…4199 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,119per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$35
other 7% −$2
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$951) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,119
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,801 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $914 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,852 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $917 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $925 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $895 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,867 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $930 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $931 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $939 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $949 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $949 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,902 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $952 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $912 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $914 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $915 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $913 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $914 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $915 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $917 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $915 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $916 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $915 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $917 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $919 17d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $920 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $924 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $925 21d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $894 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $926 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $927 25d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $926 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $927 27d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $926 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $928 28d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $930 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $931 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $928 32d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $930 33d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $932 34d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $933 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records