Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d2e…8649 sports 587 markets active 3h ago coverage 784d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$429 (-4%) realized −$433 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%248W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$4
14 days+$28
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$444
other 22% +$15
politics 19% −$4
crypto 3% $0
world 2% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +34.2% +21.4% 49% 44% -7.9%
≤30d 192 +1.2% -8.4% 47% 45% -14.4%
≤90d 260 -2.6% -11.8% 46% 44% -17.0%
all 578 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 41% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 41% -13.5%
10% -25.2% 39% -21.8%
15% -32.5% 34% -29.3%
20% -39.1% 28% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

784d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$433
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses248 / 330
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)578 / 587
History coverage784d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 274 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +66%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $6 +$7 +108%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$5 +87%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$7 +194%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $5 +$5 +86%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Daniel vs. Nava: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 −$3 -98%
ITF Madrid: Briyana Ivanova vs Paula Cembranos Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $3 +$1 +28%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $6 −$5 -99%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $1 +$2 +158%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $6 +$8 +127%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 +$4 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $3 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 72¢ $4 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 4h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $4 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $1 11h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 82¢ $2 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 11h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $1 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland $1 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 12h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $2 13h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $3 13h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $2 13h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $3 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $3 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.70 · official $31.47 (match) · 1279 history records