Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d2d…26dc other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$169 (+17%) realized +$100 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$25
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$95
sports 3% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.4% +27.1% 75% 25% +5.1%
≤30d 5 +33.7% +21.0% 80% 20% +4.3%
≤90d 5 +33.7% +21.0% 80% 20% +4.3%
all 5 +33.7% +21.0% 80% 20% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.0% 20% +4.3%
10% +9.4% 20% -5.6%
15% -1.2% 20% -14.8%
20% -10.8% 20% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.19 per $1 lost it wins $18.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage21d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $121 $162 +$41 (+34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $155 $134 −$21 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $95 $120 +$25 (+26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $85 $98 +$13 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $46 $51 +$5 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $19 $27 +$8 (+42%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $12 +$18 +154%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$1 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $89 +$6 +7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $83 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 26h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $130 26h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 27h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 31h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 31h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 45h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 45h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 45h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 46h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.53 · official $593.53 (match) · 153 history records