Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d26…600a
crypto · 1070 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$53 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$58 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses804 / 264
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1068 / 1070
History coverage72d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 1068 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$211
14 days−$176
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 64¢ 100¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 78¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 62¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 71¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 64¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$63
politics 2% $0
other 0% −$7
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 478 -10.7% -19.2% 55% 55% -16.8%
≤30d 1028 -1.2% -10.6% 77% 63% -8.9%
≤90d 1068 -1.0% -10.4% 75% 62% -8.7%
all 1068 -1.0% -10.4% 75% 62% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 62% -8.7%
10% -19.0% 27% -17.5%
15% -26.8% 23% -25.5%
20% -34.0% 19% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.10 · official $68.10 (match) · 2387 history records