Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d26…5b7a other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$10
other 24% −$20
politics 23% −$8
crypto 10% −$8
world 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 145 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage167d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $359 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $177 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $187 +$1 +1%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $375 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 25 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $186 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $287 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 23 $191 −$2 -1%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $715 −$2 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $385 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $195 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $190 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $203 −$5 -2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 15 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $198 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $193 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 13 $418 −$5 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $57 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $57 8h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $38 8d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $38 8d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $64 16d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $65 18d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $51 32d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $51 33d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 41d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 41d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $177 88d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $178 88d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $175 88d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $175 88d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $180 88d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $180 89d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $176 89d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $177 89d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $180 89d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $181 89d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $188 89d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $187 89d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $178 90d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $178 90d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $176 90d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $6 90d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $170 90d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $182 90d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $182 90d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 92¢ $179 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 580 history records